Circana’s comprehensive weekly updates on the U.S. consumer packaged goods sector monitor the impact of macroeconomic factors, including tariffs, on volume, price, and supply, providing valuable insights to support critical business decisions.

Highlights from this week’s edition:

• Retail F&B volume declined 0.5% in the 3 weeks ending September 28 and -2.3% in 4 weeks ending October 5. The sharp drop in the latest week is due to lapping last year’s storm and the port strike-driven stock-ups during the week ending October 6, 2024. Excluding that week, volume continues to slowly trend downward as persistent headwinds, such as low consumer confidence, tight economic conditions, and other macro factors, continue to weigh on demand. We explore drivers of volume sales softness across total food & beverage on page 3 of this document.

• Retail F&B price growth was 2.9% in the 3 weeks ending September 28, an improvement from 3.3% in the prior period (4 weeks ending Sept 7). Easing commodity costs in produce, dairy and some meats relieve pricing pressure, but gradually rising prices are still observed across most segments, especially center-store items. In the latest week ending October 5, price growth temporarily accelerated due to bulk purchasing in the year ago week that drove down average price per volume.

• Non-food CPG units drop 1.6% in the 3 weeks ending September 28 (and -3.7% in 4 weeks ending October 5). Worsening in the latest week is due to lapping of storm/port strike-driven stock-ups in the prior year, particularly in essentials such as toilet paper and diapers. Non-food CPG has now experienced eight consecutive weeks of declining units, aligning with the drop in consumer confidence in late August. 

• Non-food CPG price growth was 3.3% in the 3 weeks ending September 28 (and 2.4% in 4 weeks ending October 5). Pricing volatility in the latest periods is a result of mix shifts from year ago stock-up events and other factors. Although mix shifts and assortment premiumization still drive the majority of average price growth, shelf price growth slowly emerges in beauty and kitchen products in Q3.

If you have any C-suite/executive clients who would like to talk about the F&B volume softness, please reach out to us to schedule.

In addition, we can help our clients navigate the tariff landscape with clarity and confidence. 

Please reach out with any questions.Sally, Cara, and Lauren