Retailers and CPG manufacturers are facing a tough balancing act. Between shifting shopper loyalties, AI-driven expectations, and tariff-influenced cost uncertainty, chief commercial officers (CCOs) and their teams are navigating financial strain while trying to chart a clear path to growth.

Yet within this complexity is opportunity. A clear, comprehensive view of the consumer provides CCOs with insight into openings competitors might not see. By focusing on adaptability, innovation, and brand loyalty, you can turn headwinds into tailwinds.

Squeezed From Three Sides

Consumers will continue to stretch their budget dollars by adding value and private-label brands to their carts.

This price sensitivity is what makes tariffs the most challenging issue facing the industry. Most brands are unwilling to pass along input costs because it creates a trade-off in volume. As prices increase, consumers tend to switch to channels offering a price advantage – like superstores, clubs, and e-commerce. 

Beyond these efforts, the conversation lately has focused more on the potential for AI to disintermediate retail with agentic commerce. As agents make decisions on behalf of shoppers, the need for brands to build connections with their loyal buyers will grow.

As agentic commerce becomes more commonplace, the winners will be those who focus on driving real engagement with consumers. Those that haven't built enduring loyalty with their customers will be bypassed.

In the looming agentic commerce future, brands will need to use their first-party data to fuel direct conversations with customers. Loyalty programs and direct marketing will be indispensable avenues for building the personal connections required to keep customers coming back.

How To Engineer Growth

The next wave of advertising and AI-driven commerce has yet to reach us. While we're all early on this journey, there are steps CCOs can take today to drive consumer-centric growth even in dynamic markets.

Focus on Your Consumer Segments

Don't underestimate the value of your target consumer segments. Have a clear strategy to find them where they shop and aggressively target them for growth. It's valuable to think more broadly about the segments you want to go after, and worth noting it may not make sense in this moment to target popular segments. In uncertain times, placing your bet on durable segments can be the smarter bet.

For instance, many clients instinctively reach for the millennial and Gen X segments, thinking they're the most attractive targets. Yet, these consumer segments are facing a lot of job insecurity at the moment, and they don't have much disposable income. If, as many experts believe, there will be an economic downturn next year, these segments may pull back on spending. 

Brands will fare better by focusing on a durable segment, like baby boomers, who have sufficient disposable income, protected wealth, and are willing to spend. They're in a good position to weather a shaky economy.

Deep customer insights and an understanding of what's driving shopper motivation will help you identify the right segments to focus on.

Prepare for Multiple Outcomes

Of course, no one knows for sure where things are going to land over the next few months, so CCOs should prepare for multiple potential outcomes. Scenario planning is indispensable. Brands should plan for what’s likely to happen as well as for both the best and worst cases.

Putting yourself in this defensive posture and being nimble enough to execute on a moment's notice will ensure you're ready for whatever tomorrow brings.

Turn Faster Insights Into Future Advantage

The past can be a reliable guide to decision-making, but when change happens faster than reporting, the path forward dims. More than 90% of the analysis clients ask us to do is focused on the past. That's still important, but if they want to move quickly, they need more time to understand what happened and how to react to various scenarios.

With AI, large-language models, and proprietary retail graphs, we can help you collapse the insight-to-action cycle. Automation compresses the entire process to a couple of hours, but this AI-powered solution doesn't just spin the wheels faster — it helps you uncover the 'why' behind what happened. You'll benefit from thorough analysis of complex questions and fast, actionable insights, freeing up more time to imagine, create, and innovate.

Why Assortment Planning Needs a Rethink

Ever wonder if your product lineup truly reflects how people shop today? For a cereal brand, that question isn’t just interesting — it’s critical. The truth is, gaps in your assortment can mean missed sales and lost loyalty.

That’s where Circana steps in. Our Assortment solutions don’t just crunch numbers — they give you clarity. By analyzing shelf data, shopper behavior, and category trends, we help you see the ideal mix by store, category, and geography. Translation: more sales, less guesswork, and whitespace you didn’t know existed.

But insight alone isn’t enough. Speed matters. With AI-powered algorithms for scenario planning, you can simulate changes, measure incrementality, and make smarter add/delist decisions in minutes — not months. These prescriptive insights spark innovation and uncover untapped segments and channels before your competitors even spot them.

And when you’re ready to launch? Our domain expertise helps you forecast demand and build programs that win. Because assortment planning shouldn’t be a back-office task — it should be your growth engine.

Escaping the Triple Squeeze

CCOs may be feeling the squeeze from the combined pressure of tariffs, AI, and brand loyalty shifts, but there are ways through – with the right partner, technology, and insights. Leaning into predictive commerce will help you identify and activate the right segments, while also protecting the channels with significant base volume. In a fast-moving market, those who leverage AI and automation will be able to spend more time focusing on the future, unlocking innovation, and achieving consumer-centric growth.