Consumers can accept a margin of price increases for retail goods. But the uncertainty around tariffs and their effect has caused consumers to adjust their purchase decisions. Understanding price sensitivity for consumers is vital, as is understanding messaging that resonates with consumers facing uncertainty.

The U.S. consumer is affected by many factors influencing their decisions. Tariffs and the uncertainty around them are a piece of a larger puzzle impacting shopping behavior. Rising debt and elevated prices alongside lagging wages have weakened consumer demand, most notably in discretionary general merchandise.

Circana's forecasting data shows that uncertainty caused by tariffs and other economic concerns will make consumers prioritize their purchases and increase their likelihood of changing brands across categories. Retailers need to understand their existing market share, consider strategies for retaining consumers, and identify data-driven opportunities to reach potential new shoppers by aligning products and messaging to the attributes consumers are looking for.